Pork Belly Report

Recent drop in pork belly market points to near term buying opportunity

We have been observing in recent weeks and months that strength in belly prices seemed unsustainable. As of Friday’s close, the USDA belly primal fell 25% in less than two weeks. We view the recent drop as a logical short-term market correction, but we think this leg down is unlikely to last long. There is some downside potential remaining but the market is already showing some signs of stabilization at current levels. We would advise buyers of pork bellies to act quickly to fill shorter term needs now that the markets have weakened, keeping in mind that tightness in this market may resurface quickly.

USDA Belly Primal

Download the 2021 Pork Belly Report

Key Points

1. We believe pork bellies have more room to fall from current levels, but will be quick to turn back upwards after reaching a temporary bottom in a few weeks. In short, we expect the belly market to experience another price jump after this upcoming bottom with continued volatility through the summer.

2. We are hearing that the demand drop-off is a short term reaction to prices and fundamental demand is still strong across retail and foodservice channels for almost all protein products.

3. Our annual belly inflation forecast remains unchanged at +33%, but we have adjusted for the volatility impacts of the recent drop in the spring and summer months.

Cleveland Research Company

1375 E 9th St #2700
Cleveland, OH 44114